Wall Street Economists are Terrible at Predicting Rates

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was rising toward 3.20% in early October 2018 when a survey by Bloomberg News showed that none of the more than 50 economists predicted it would fall below 2.40% by now. The median estimate was 3.33%, a big miss given the current 1.58% yield.

Wall Street Interest Rate Predictions 

This chart shows interest rate predictions for June 30, 2019.  As you can see Wall Street was completely wrong.  Economy Tweets predicted zero interest rates were coming on December 17, 2017 just before the SP 500 peaked in early 2018.  One of our editors had a shout out on Bloomberg saying buy the US 30 year treasury.  This was a very profitable trade.