Gold Bear Market

In October, Bank of America forecast $2,000 by early 2012. Goldman predicted in December that gold would reach $1,840 by early June. Barclays and Morgan Stanley said in January that it would average $1,850 and $1,810 this quarter. The metal actually averaged $1,619 since the end of March. Goldman now expects prices to reach $1,940 in 12 months. Barclays predicts an average of $1,790 in the fourth quarter, and Morgan Stanley forecasts $2,000 in the final three months.

Gold fell 19 percent by May 16 from its closing high of $1,891.90 in August, within 1 percentage point of the common definition of a bear market. Prices then touched a five-month low of $1,523.90 on Dec. 29. After rallying 3.7 percent on June 1, the metal is now up 4.5 percent since the start of January to $1,637.20 today, extending an 11-year bull market.